The outlook for the international air freight market has changed significantly in a short space of time. While it was still expected at the end of 2025 that long-term contract rates would fall in 2026, market researcher Xeneta now anticipates an increase of 5% to 15% over the full year.
The primary cause is the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, a significant portion of global air freight capacity was lost in early 2026. At the same time, demand for air freight remained stronger than previously expected.
For companies dependent on international air freight, this means that rates, capacity, and transit times may remain under pressure for the time being.
Capacity suddenly dropped
According to Xeneta, the escalation of the conflict on February 28, 2026, caused approximately 12% of global air freight capacity to disappear overnight. Major airports and flight routes in the Middle East were temporarily unavailable or had limited access.
This sudden disruption had a direct impact on international goods flows. Airlines had to reroute flights, adjust schedules, and redistribute capacity across various trade routes.
Due to this situation, global air freight capacity grew by only 1% in the first half of 2026. This is significantly less than previously anticipated.
Demand for air freight continues to grow
While supply growth was limited, demand for air freight increased by 4% in the first six months of 2026. This meant demand growth exceeded the original annual forecast of 2% to 3%.
The combination of limited capacity and higher demand led to a clear increase in rates. Globally, average air freight rates, including spot and contract rates, were approximately 17% higher in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier.
The spot market reacted even more strongly. In May, global spot rates were approximately 40% higher than in the same month of 2025, according to Xeneta. The increase now appears to be leveling off, but there is no sign of a clear decrease yet.
New expectations for the second half of 2026
Xeneta expects demand growth to gradually slow down in the second half of the year. At the same time, available capacity may recover further as airports and routes in the Middle East become more stably operational.
As a result, supply and demand may converge later in the year. This could improve the position of shippers, but the market remains uncertain.
Geopolitical developments can quickly affect available capacity again. The events of early 2026 show that major air freight hubs can go offline within a short period. Companies are therefore well-advised to consider multiple scenarios in their transport planning.
AI drives additional air freight demand
In addition to geopolitical developments, the composition of the air freight market is also changing. Demand for goods related to artificial intelligence is growing strongly.
This includes semiconductors, servers, data center applications, and other high-end hardware. According to Xeneta, global sales of semiconductors in April 2026 were more than twice as high as a year earlier.
AI-related goods still account for less than 10% of total air freight volume. However, shipments are heavily concentrated on specific trade routes, particularly between Asia and North America. As a result, the Transpacific route is currently one of the strongest air freight corridors.
Growth in e-commerce shipments declines
Developments within e-commerce show a different picture. Low-value Chinese export shipments fell by 7% in May 2026 compared to a year earlier. This marked the sixth consecutive month of decline.
Changing European customs regulations are also affecting this flow of goods. Since July 1, 2026, a standard fee of €3 per declaration line has applied to e-commerce shipments with a value up to €150. Additionally, a European handling fee is expected to follow from November 2026.
These measures increase the costs of individual parcel shipments from countries outside the European Union. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly important for webshops and retailers to reassess their logistical setup.
Instead of shipping large numbers of individual parcels by air freight, it may be more efficient in some situations to transport goods in bulk to Europe and distribute them from a European warehouse.
Air freight remains important for flexible supply chains
The disruptions in the Middle East once again underscore the speed and flexibility of air freight. While sea freight routes often require a longer period to fully recover after a disruption, air freight capacity can generally be adjusted more quickly.
This makes air freight vital for time-critical shipments, high-value goods, and situations where companies must react quickly to unexpected shortages or disruptions.
At the same time, this flexibility brings higher and less predictable costs. Thorough preparation therefore remains essential. By actively monitoring demand, rates, and available capacity, you can adjust more quickly and better determine which transport solution fits your shipment.
The air freight market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments in the second half of 2026. Planning early, reserving space, and comparing different routes or transport options helps to limit the impact on your supply chain.